Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.343203 0.390665 0.442197 0.502290 0.570435 0.645308 0.733813
2025-09-14 0.262436 0.322708 0.393203 0.481703 0.589823 0.717619 0.880190
2025-09-21 0.210129 0.277144 0.360995 0.473532 0.620590 0.806246 1.058562
2025-09-28 0.169679 0.238879 0.331063 0.462702 0.645795 0.891467 1.246393
2025-10-05 0.146647 0.219352 0.322007 0.477275 0.706069 1.030844 1.527285
2025-10-12 0.123915 0.196219 0.304042 0.476169 0.743905 1.144511 1.790029
2025-10-19 0.107171 0.179034 0.291830 0.481238 0.791152 1.278254 2.102761
2025-10-26 0.094956 0.166814 0.285164 0.493564 0.851123 1.439600 2.482662
2025-11-02 0.079879 0.147226 0.263352 0.477290 0.861292 1.521541 2.744107
2025-11-09 0.066325 0.127965 0.238992 0.452526 0.852589 1.569601 2.953470
2025-11-16 0.057240 0.115324 0.224357 0.442762 0.868856 1.663008 3.256850
2025-11-23 0.049587 0.104126 0.210620 0.432376 0.882023 1.751884 3.563796
2025-11-30 0.044805 0.098108 0.206420 0.440981 0.935478 1.928719 4.076620
2025-12-07 0.038263 0.087311 0.190965 0.424265 0.935284 2.000260 4.389508
2025-12-14 0.033612 0.079811 0.181203 0.418042 0.956257 2.118345 4.819104
2025-12-21 0.029432 0.072636 0.170993 0.409162 0.970026 2.223219 5.236782
2025-12-28 0.027356 0.070028 0.170603 0.422586 1.036309 2.452712 5.970262
2026-01-04 0.024636 0.065368 0.164692 0.421978 1.069608 2.612283 6.565886
2026-01-11 0.022549 0.061942 0.161206 0.426748 1.116740 2.811168 7.287282
2026-01-18 0.021014 0.059692 0.160291 0.437895 1.181665 3.062541 8.178265
2026-01-25 0.018469 0.054243 0.150269 0.423576 1.178470 3.143936 8.646836
2026-02-01 0.015939 0.048374 0.138179 0.401663 1.151509 3.160449 8.947092
2026-02-08 0.014245 0.044622 0.131276 0.393051 1.159753 3.271031 9.520535